[SMM Analysis] what is the trend of the price of 300series stainless steel in August?

News from SMM8 on the 2nd of June:

Nickel prices rose sharply in July, rising as high as $15115 for 12 straight sessions from $12000 a tonne, up more than $2800 a tonne, or more than 20 per cent. As of July 31, nickel fluctuated at $14200 a tonne, up nearly 14 per cent a month. The Shanghai nickel main company rose from 98000 yuan per ton to 118790 yuan per ton, an increase of more than 20000 yuan per ton, or nearly 20 per cent. At present, the Shanghai nickel minor adjustment fell back to 112000 yuan / ton line, a monthly increase of nearly 12 per cent.

According to SMM research, the recent rise in nickel prices is mainly due to the rise in bullish capital forces. Secondly, the news of the Fed's interest rate cut and the ban on mining in Indonesia has also played a certain role in promoting nickel prices, while the spot fundamental direction has not shown a significant positive effect. SMM believes that the recent nickel prices due to short-term fundamental performance and financial support to maintain high volatility, if the bulls do not withdraw a large number of metal performance is still expected to be relatively good, but there is little room to re-impact the high, wait-and-see capital movements.

The price of 300 series stainless steel is closely related to the price of nickel, and the price rises with the price of nickel. In Wuxi area, the private cold rolling rose from 14400 yuan / ton to 15400 yuan / ton, and the hot rolling rose from 13600 yuan / ton to 14500 yuan / ton. The price of stainless steel held steady this week. Today, the price of 304-2B rough edge rolls in Wuxi is 14900-15000 yuan / ton, and the price of 304/NO.1 is 14100-14300 yuan / ton. July is the traditional consumption of stainless steel off-season, according to SMM research, some traders reflect downstream demand is not good, the transaction is light. Among them, traders with an average monthly shipment of about 10, 000 tons said their sales of cold rolling dropped to about 7000 tons in July.

Note: steel mill profit based on inventory

The price of 300 series stainless steel rose, and the profit of the steel mill was changed from loss to profit in terms of inventory. At the end of June, the profit loss of steel mills was about 100 yuan per ton. In July, the price of stainless steel rose, and the profit of steel mills changed from loss to profit, reaching a maximum of 800 yuan per ton. As of 7.31, the profit of steel mills was about 450 yuan per ton.

According to SMM, 300series stainless steel produced 1.144 million tons in July, up 18000 tons, or 1.6 per cent, from June.

Stainless steel prices rose to a certain extent in July, but according to SMM research, the actual demand downstream is weak, the transaction situation is not good. Some traders said that the increase in stainless steel prices in mid-July followed the rise in nickel prices, and on the other hand, steel mills wanted to boost stainless steel prices. However, downstream transactions did not improve, and stainless steel production still showed an increasing trend. At present, steel mills have not reduced production. Some traders are bearish on the future price of stainless steel in the short term, but some traders are still optimistic about demand in August and September.

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